The following is taken from a statement given by Stan Katz to the West Windsor Council and Administration on June 11:##M:[more]##
On February 8 of this year, I made a presentation to this Council regarding the process for forecasting the number of additional students that could be expected from new housing in West Windsor. In that presentation I stated that the district could probably handle around 300 additional students without the need to build any additional schools, so long as the students didn’t arrive for about six years or so. Those numbers have been quoted widely.
If you look back at that presentation, you will see that it was based on a number of assumptions about where we are now and where we think we will be in the next few years. Specifically, the forecasts included the completion of the Toll Brothers development, the completion of the Axelrad development, and NOTHING ELSE. During the question-and-answer period following the presentation, I specifically asked the Mayor, who was sitting on the dais, whether that assumption was a correct one, that is, was it safe to assume that there were no other housing projects on the horizon that would cause me to seriously underestimate the District’s forecast for the number of students in the years preceding the development of any transit village? I was told, point blank, that “all other projects are on hold”.
That was in February of this year. On April 29, I read in the local newspaper that there are plans to build 16 single-family houses somewhere near Ward Road. That’s 20 additional children that I had not considered in my forecasts. Not a big deal, to be sure, but as I had mentioned in my report, the West Windsor elementary schools are already getting very tight, especially Maurice Hawk, and every additional 15 elementary school students just makes things tighter.
Then, last week, I read in the newspaper that there are plans for ANOTHER 16 single-family homes, this time somewhere near the Gun Club. That’s another 20 students, 15 of whom will also probably be elementary school age. So in just 4 months, the expectation of “no additional students from other housing projects” has gone from zero to 40. And these are only the ones that I know about because they made the local newspapers due to controversies arising from issues other than the number of students they would produce.
If this can happen in just four months, what can we expect of the six-year time line that I used to project where we would be at the time of any new housing from a transit village? I find it difficult to believe that both of these proposed developments came as a surprise to the Township, yet I was never given any indication that they were on any drawing board. I’m not really interested in placing any blame anywhere in particular, but I am going to state, at this point, that I no longer feel comfortable with a forecast that indicates the District could accommodate an additional 300 students six years from now without the need to build at least one more elementary school.
Thirty-two additional single-family houses doesn’t sound like much of a big deal, does it? An additional 40 students in a District of 9500 doesn’t sound like something that should break the bank, does it? But the projects which will create these 40 additional students showed up only 4 months after I was told there is nothing on a six-year horizon except the completion of Toll Brothers and the development at Axelrad.
To be completely candid, I don’t believe I can use that “no additional construction” assumption any more. Our numbers were tight to begin with, the projection of 300 available seats in six years is now down to about 260, and given the events of the last 4 months, I doubt if I am willing to accept the assumption that no additional developments will be built between now and 2013.
I am sorry if this changes any of the considerations regarding the viability of the proposed redevelopment project. It is certainly not the intention of the School Board to take sides in that debate. However, we were asked to provide input based on certain assumptions, and we did so. In only four months, those input assumptions were shown to be faulty, and so we are no longer able to stand behind our original forecasts.
As always, the Board of Education will be happy to assist you in any way possible, but we must insist on more realistic input assumptions.
