Princeton is one of the fastest growing municipalities in New Jersey, according to statistics recently released by the U.S. Census Bureau. But a demographer who has spent the last year studying the town says he doubts the accuracy of those numbers.
According to the Bureau, Princeton gained the fifth most people during the one-year period between July 1, 2013, and July 1, 2014, with 1,067. Princeton is also the most suburban of the towns in the top five, preceded by Jersey City (3,484), Lakewood (1,586), New Brunswick (1,144) and Newark (1,111).
Sarah Gibb, Census Bureau demographer, said that Princeton’s population grew from 29,041 in 2013 to 30,108 in 2014, a 3.7 percent gain, and larger than the 1.3 percent population increase that Princeton experienced in the prior year.
But the numbers might not actually be all that they seem, said Ralph Widner, a Princeton resident and member of Princeton Future. Widner, a retired planner who has spent the last year compiling statistical data about Princeton, questions the year-to-year numbers.
“We should not assume that our population actually jumped by that much over the past years,” Widner said. He points out that the Census Bureau estimated in 2011 that the town had lost 405 residents, and then the estimate in 2012 indicated that the town gained more than that number back.
“Clearly these sorts of ups and downs in population don’t really happen,” Widner said. “Theses are only estimates, after all, and they are based on a very mechanical approach.”
Gibb explained that the Bureau calculates its town population growth estimates by first determining the numbers at the county level, which involves a review of records of births, deaths and migration to and from the area.
To calculate the municipal estimates, the Bureau starts with the county populations and distributes populations based on houses and the estimated number of people per household in the town. It also takes into consideration numbers resulting from group quarters, such as college dormitories, prisons and nursing homes.
Widner said that the Census Bureau admits that, for a number of reasons, it has great difficulty making reliable estimates for communities with large populations in college dormitories.
“It suggests that we not rely on its estimates of dormitory populations below the state level,” he said. “Since 30 percent of Princeton’s population is made of students at our institutions of higher education, any increase in enrollment boosts our total. However, enrollment at Princeton University, the Seminary, and Westminster did not increase by over one thousand in one year.”
“For the time being, we can assume our population is between 29,000 and 30,000,” Widner said. “We’ll await more reliable information before we can say what that number actually is.”
–Bill Sanservino
