While dire economic conditions continue to fuel concern among officials heading into local budget seasons, it seems to have had one benefit for the West Windsor-Plainsboro school district — fewer school-aged children have moved into the area this year.
The school board examined school enrollment figures during its meeting on January 13, as it prepared to hold its first budget discussion during the meeting on Tuesday, January 27.
In looking at the school enrollment projections for this school year, and calculating the numbers of students actually attending district schools, “overall, we moved to balance things out,” says Thomas Smith, the assistant superintendent for planning and pupil services. In preparation for the 2008-’09 school year, the district had moved Avalon Watch from the Maurice Hawk sending area to Dutch Neck. “That helped us balance our schools, and overall, I think we did a good job with our projections,” said Smith. “This has a lot to do with Stan Katz, and his long-term forecasting for the district, which has been fairly accurate.” Dutch Neck Elementary school was given an additional full-time teacher because of the shift in enrollment between Maurice Hawk and Dutch Neck.
Katz, who is no longer with the board, was involved with the school board since 1995 and was widely known for his demographic projections, including the number of school children that would be generated by transit-oriented development at the Princeton Junction train station. “Stan was an active part of the process,” Smith said. However, before leaving, “he did a lot of prep work,” and Smith had always been involved in helping to calculate the projections. So, the district should continue to use his methods and project accurate enrollment numbers, Smith said.
At the end of last school year, the district had 9,”750 students. With regard to specific schools, the district had budgeted to account for an increase in enrollment it predicted primarily at the high and middle school levels. School officials then included funding for the hiring of three new full-time equivalents to go along with the increase in enrollment. Two full-time equivalents were hired at High School North, a guidance counselor and as a teacher. High School North, officials estimated, was reaching full build-out and was almost on par with South.
Over the last few years, the enrollment has started to reverse between Community and Grover, where projections made last year indicate Community would level out in the 1,”200 range, roughly 400 students per grade level, and Grover was headed toward 360 to 370 per grade over the next few years. During last year’s budget discussions, principal projections estimated that Community would have 1,”238 students, and Grover would have 1,”158. School board committee projections were on par with the principal’s for Grover, but with Community, the committee’s projection was that enrollment there could actually reach 1,”275.
During the January 13 meeting, officials took a look at the actual numbers, and in the district’s eight schools, the numbers of students enrolled at each school came in under the board’s estimates, but not by much. In two cases, mores students had enrolled than expected.
At the Dutch Neck School, officials had estimated that a total of 731 students would attend the school this year, up from the 656 in October, 2007. As of October, 2008, the actual enrollment was 739. And at the Wicoff School, officials projected 390 students for 2008-’09, but there were actually 402 as of October, 2008.
At Maurice Hawk, district officials estimated there would be a total enrollment of 813 students in 2008, down from the 845 in October, 2007. The enrollment was actually only at 809.
At Town Center Elementary, officials had projected that 714 students would be enrolled for the 2008-’09 year, down from the 731 enrolled in October, 2007. The actual enrollment as of October, 2008, is 712.
At Millstone River School, the board projected 772 students enrolled for this school year, down from last year’s 824. However, only 763 were enrolled as of October, 2008.
At the Village School, 680 students were enrolled in October, 2007. The board predicted that 676 students would attend the school this year, but as of October, 2008, 668 students were enrolled.
At Grover Middle School, 1,”158 students were predicted for enrollment for the 2008-’09 school year, down from 1,”162 the year before. However, there were only 1,”144 enrolled as of October, 2008. At Community Middle School, 1,”275 were projected for this year — down from 1,”248 the prior year — but only 1,”258 were enrolled as of October, 2008.
At High School South, the enrollment in October, 2007, was 1,”624. School officials had projected 1,”609 for 2008-’09, but wound up with 1,”620 students this year.
At High School North, officials projected 1,”595 students this year, up from last year’s 1,”472, but the actual enrollment as of October, 2008, was 1,”576.
Smith says the numbers indicate that the school district is in pretty good shape. “The good thing is right now, we do not have the expectation of very large developments coming on line in the very near future,” he said. “We keep our finger on the pulse in the district, and we know where people are moving in and moving out.”
District officials believe that, unless there is more new housing — other than the 352 residential units approved for the former Akselrad property on Clarksville Road, known as West Windsor Gardens, and the remainder of the single-family Toll Brothers units in West Windsor — coming into either township, the enrollment numbers should begin to level off after this year.
Smith echoed the sentiment this week. “One of the things we know is long-term, our enrollment will stabilize and decrease,” he said. “With these new developments coming on, we will be able to absorb them.
“If they’re all built tomorrow, then that would be a problem,” he added, saying that the planning boards in both towns have spaced out the development.
In addition, Smith said, “I think the economy has slowed down some building also, so as our enrollment continues to decline, we are kind of gaining some leeway into size,” Smith said. “Clearly, our schools right now can adequately house our students without a problem. As our enrollment decreases a little bit, we will stay right around this mark.”
Smith said one specific example of this is in the Mews at Princeton Junction, part of the Toll Brothers development, located off Wessex Place, where Smith says he has heard the apartments are not yet fully rented, as they had expected to be by this time, possibly a direct result of the economy.
To conserve money, parents may also think twice about sending their children to private schools, and may opt instead to send their kids to the WW-P public schools, or possibly bring them back from private schools and send them here, Smith said. However, this still would have little effect on the district, he emphasizes.
“The bottom line is unless we have a huge influx of students, we can pretty much absorb any changes,” Smith said. “We don’t have that many kids who go to out-of-district schools because of the quality of our schools. But if some of them were to come back, we can easily absorb them.”
