WW-P School district’s “de facto demographer” and 11-year school board member Stan Katz presented projections for the number of new school children that can be expected to be brought to the district with the construction of new housing in a transit village. ##M:[more]##
The presentation, made at the February 5 council meeting, was meant to answer recent questions about whether the additional housing from a transit village would require the school district to build new schools.“The purpose of this presentation is neither to oppose, nor to promote, the concept of a transit village in West Windsor,” said Katz. “My purpose, and that of the School Board, is to make sure that everyone in a decision-making position has sufficient information to make an informed decision on the important issue of how to estimate the number of school children that might be generated from various amounts of housing in a West Windsor transit village.”
Katz’s 25-minute presentation suggested that if West Windsor developers build as many as 800 new housing units by 2010, no new schools will need to be built. More could be accommodated by the existing schools, but only after more time passes. According to projections, Katz suggested as many as 2,”000 units could be built by 2015 without requiring any new school construction.”
“The sooner the transit village comes to fruition, the more likely it is that some changes would have to be made, either in school board policy or school construction. In the long run, timing may become a more critical issue than the numbers,” said Katz.
In addition to the timing of the construction, other factors can be expected to affect the average number of schoolchildren generated by new housing, including the type of units built, whether affordable housing is included, and whether the development is seen as having “child friendliness.”
Katz said in the West Windsor area, townhouse developments with affordable housing units can be expected to generate between .35 and .7 students per unit. If the units were to be built without child-friendly swimming pools, playgrounds, and tennis courts, they could be expected to produce a number closer to the lower end of the range, said Katz.
Apartments with affordable housing units have a range of between .3 and .5 students per unit, and both townhouse and apartment units that do not include affordable housing have a slightly lower range.
Katz based his projections on trends seen in other, similar developments within the WW-P school district. Apartments at Windsor Woods West and the Mews, the two newest additions, and Plainsboro townhouse developments, such as Brittany and Hampshire, were among the developments used for comparison.
Rutgers University last year released a study on transit villages that suggested less than .2 students per unit were generated by new housing built close to train stations, but Katz said the study did not apply to West Windsor. Of the five municipalities included in the study, none had a school system that produced an average SAT score higher than 1050. WW-P’s average SAT score is 1185 out of a possible 1600, a statistic that would most likely entice more families with school-aged children to move into the district. (The SAT this year was changed to include a third section, which makes the WW-P average 1761 out of a possible 2400.)
Katz’s past projections for Windsor Woods West and the Mews have proved to be quite accurate. “Other districts would have to pay a lot of money for this kind of survey. We’re very fortunate to have someone who is able to do this in the township,” said councilman Franc Gambatese.
“The WW-P School District has a K-12 seat count of just about 9,”500 students, with a short-term forecast of about 9,”550 students for next year,” said Katz. “Due to new considerations concerning the Akselrad property development, we now believe the peak will occur in 2009 at a little over 9,”600 students, and then begin a very slow decline to what we call a steady-state equilibrium of around 8,”300 students in about 12 years.”
According to that projection, Katz said the district would be able to accommodate the 700 students that would likely be generated by a development with 2,”000 units, including affordable housing but not including child-friendly features, provided the new residents did not move in before 2014 at the earliest.
Katz’s presentation took into account the impending construction of the Akselrad development, or West Windsor Gardens, slated for Clarksville Road, and the expected transit village, but did not factor in other possible developments. According to the presentation, further developments are unlikely given that Plainsboro is near full buildout, and West Windsor is dedicating its resources to redevelopment of the area near the train station.
After Katz’s presentation, Mayor Shing-Fu Hsueh stressed that no decisions have yet been made regarding the number of housing units that will be built in the township’s impending redevelopment. “This doesn’t mean we’re going to have 2,”000 units built,” said Hsueh.
Council members asked questions and made comments after the presentation, including council president Linda Geevers, who formerly served on the school board with Katz. “We want the redevelopment to be tax-positive. I know I wouldn’t want to do anything that would necessitate building another school.”
Will Anklowitz, who campaigned last fall on a platform that urged caution regarding redevelopment and a transit village, asked whether the additional students would equate to higher school costs, even if no new school were to be built. Katz said since teachers are the greatest expense for running a school district, more pupils would lead to more teachers, and therefore more expenses.
The entire text of Katz’s presentation is online at www.wwallaboard.org/Katz_presentation.html
