Thanks to a slow rate of construction at two new West Windsor developments, the West Windsor-Plainsboro School District’s student population is about a year behind its demographic projections.##M:[more]##
According to the district Office of Pupil and Personnel Services, the student population was 9,”123 students as of last October 15, the deadline for filing annual student population numbers with the state Department of Education.
District demographics, which have historically been extremely accurate, projected an overall student population of 9,”258 students in October 2004. In actuality, the student population only turned out to be 9,”123, according to Jon Cosse, assisitant superintendent for pupil personnel services.
Projections also called for approximately 9,”492 students by this October, a number that officials don’t believe the district will see. According to Cosse, the number of students enrolled in the district as of June 30 was 9,”327, but that number has fallen over the summer.
WW-P Board Member Stan Katz, an expert in district demographics, anticipates that by this year’s October 15 reporting date, the overall population will be in the high 9,”100s or low 9,”200s.
Estimating school pupulation increases from year to year, says Katz, is an inexact science, subject to deviations in the construction schedules that are reported to the district by developers. That was exactly the case during the 2004-’05 school year.
According to Katz, the Estates at Princeton Junction and Windsor Woods West (formerly Meadow Lane apartments) developments wound up constructing fewer units of housing than they originally reported to the school district. The district utilizes developers’ construction schedules to estimate the number of children it believes will be coming on line during the school year.
“What we had from Toll Brothers (the developer of the Estates) was their schedule of planned cetificates of occupancy by quarter,” Katz says. “Last year Toll was expecting to complete about 30 single-family homes and a large number of townhouses and apartments.”
According to Cosse, Toll built fewer townhouses than expected and significantly delayed the timing of the construction of the development’s 635 apartments.
Katz says that although the construction on the apartments is starting about a year later than expected, the completion date has remained the same. The result will be student enrollments squeezed into a tighter period of time than originally anticipated.
The case was similar with Windsor Woods West, Katz says. “Two years ago, the township told us to expect Windsor Woods West to start being occupied, but they had no buildings completed last year.”
He estimates that the student population will reach about 9,”500 by the middle of January. 2006.
“We originally though that we would be at 9,”500 at the start of the year, but that was assuming that all the apartments, 60 townhomes, and 100 single-family homes were built. They have not been completed.”
Katz says that these deviations in developers’ production schedules make intermediate enrollment projections more difficult.
The opposite situation of the Estates and Windsor Woods occured several years ago with the Walker Gordon development in Plainsboro. In that case an especially dry summer resulted in significantly more homes being built that originally expected. The resulting enrollments created a space problem at Wicoff School.
“We know how many kids will come in from the units. What we don’t know is when those units are going to be occupied,” Katz says. “It all makes for the need to watch things carefully. It’s with these intermediate forecasts that we have trouble if any development gets seriously behind or seriously ahead. Then we look silly.”
The uncertainty of making enrollment projections sometimes makes it difficult for the district to plan its budget. There’s always the possibility of allocating too much for school kids that never materialize, or not spending enough for enrollments that were not projected.
“You have to prepare in budgeting process for projected enrollments, because the hardest thing to do is to add a classroom or hire a teacher a teacher in the middle of the year,” Katz says. “The alternative is to start off one fewer class, but then you can wind up with a situation where you have some class sizes with 26 or 27 students.
WW-P District demographers have estimated that a total of 725 students will be added to the district by the year 2010 as a result of the Estates at Princeton Junction.
Last year, the district completed a study that looked at the social, logistical, and demographic factors associated with the placement of students from the project.
According to the report, students in grades K-3 will reach a peak enrollment in the year 2013 with 2,”647 students (2003-’04 enrollment is 2,”543). Students in grades 4 and 5 will reach a peak enrollment in 2004 with 1,”481 students (1,”447 this year). Peak middle school enrollment will be reached in 2005 with 2,”358 students (2,”230 in 2003-’04). High school peak enrollment will be reached in 2008 with 3,”186 students (2,”810 this year).
Meanwhile, the lower rate of students entering WW-P schools this year has given the district some breathing room to make repairs and additions to existing buildings — as long as voters agree to pay for the plan.
In June, the board approved a $25 million referendum a referendum for repairs and capital improvements in district schools. The referendum is expected to be held in early 2006.
Among the items that would be covered by the referendum are a $7.6 million performing arts center at High School South and $2.1 million for an additional six classrooms at the Dutch Neck Elementary School.
High School South will receive almost $19 million, including $100,”000 for open area renovation, $280,”000 for paving repair, and $100,”000 for expansion of the parking lots.
Dutch Neck School costs will total just over $4 million. Repairs at the school include $350,”000 for construction support and $780,”000 for renovation of small group spaces.
Maurice Hawk School is expected to receive about $1.2 million to build a modular addition ($850,”000) and $385,”000 for guidance, ESL, and speech rooms.
Wicoff School is ear-marked to receive $680,”000 that includes $150,”000 for second floor repairs, and $480,”000 for HVAC. High School North is in line to receive $400,”000 for a multi-science lab.
In addition to the $25 million referendum, the board will also present a second question to the public in hopes of raising the total available for capital improvements by $2.3 million ($1.15 million each) to install synthetic turf fields at High School North and High School South that could be used year-round for such activities as soccer, football, lacrosse, and field hockey.
Voters will have an opportunity to vote on both the referendum and the second question. But the ballot will be worded in such a way that voters can approve the referendum without approving the second question, but not approve the second question and defeat the referendum.
District officials are hoping that the state may contribute 40 percent of the cost, but state officials have recently been bemoaning the fact that state funding for capital improvements has begun to dry up.
